Did We Beat Swine Flu or Is Just the First Phase Over?

Confirmed reports of the swine flu continue to rise. In the United States, the number of confirmed cases rose slowly from late April to the first week in May. However, the turning point came during the second week in May when the numbers increased significantly each day. The largest one-day increases occurred from May 7th to May 9th. On May 7th, 896 cases had been reported to date, which increased to 1639 cases on May 8th—a 83% increase in one day. The next day was another large jump—although not quite as dramatic: 1639 cases to 2254 cases on May 9th—a 37% increase.

However, the following days’ increases significantly dropped off: 12% increase on May 10 and 3% increase on May 11. Hopefully, this rate will continue to drop and we can see the end of this current pandemic of swine flu. Of course, only time will tell whether we have truly beaten the swine flu and we can go back to business as usual. Unfortunately, previous pandemics have shown similar patterns where the first phase is quite mild and then once the following fall and winter seasons cycle through, a more devastating crop of the same influenza hits.

The 1918 Spanish Flu began with mild cases in June and July of that year, and then the worst hit in the fall and winter, killing an estimated 50 million people worldwide and infecting one third of the world’s population. Considering how much more mobile our current society is, it would be in our best interest to heed the warnings of the past and remain vigilant to stop the spread of the swine flu. However, it is also true that our health care, antiviral medications, general living conditions, and understanding of viruses are much improved over the last 100 years, so hopefully, that will weigh heavily in our favor.